INTL454

Scenario for TIIE and RAP. This “scenario is discussed in the “INTL454 Supplemental Guidance and Course Policies document as well, but is provided here as a separate document for both the TIIE and RAP assignments (be sure to closely adhere to each submission’s specific instructions under the “Assignments” link). ï‚· Scenario basics: You are an intelligence analyst assigned to the National Counterterrorism Center focused on international terrorist threats to the US homeland. Recent intelligence via an “intercept” (for our purposes the nature/type and source of this intercept is not important, but is deemed credible) describes a possible future terrorist attack in the U.S. The date is June 30, 201X. A formal FBI requirement for analytical support on this threat stream has come from the FBI Counterterrorism element. FBI agents are set to meet with you in the near term to discuss some specific indicators that will help them immediately begin domestic intelligence collections efforts on the group suspected to be forming to conduct this attack. The FBI also needs a written intelligence forecast on how you think the attack will unfold (RAP), but more importantly WHY you think it will unfold that way based on your deep study of the key course themes over the past several weeks. The themes in our lessons, as emphasized in the syllabus, forums and readings all can help analysts understand and predict expected terrorist behaviour and actions useful in creating intelligence collections indicators that can be used in a specific forecasting methodology like the Khalsa or ASAP methodologies. ï‚· The TIIE requires you to apply what you have learned in class (knowledge from study of the key course themes) alongside an hour or two of research on intelligence indicators to develop a list of six indicators you think will be relevant to the hypothetical terrorist attack scenario related above. If you need specific background on what an indicator is, the guidance under the “Assignment” link for the TIIE has a document that explains how intelligence collections indicators are used. An example indicator is provided in the instructions. The basics of what an indicator is follows: o In the development of a plan to guide and assist intelligence analysts us to provide warning of a terrorist attack, we have sought first to identify in advance those actions that would constitute preparations for the attack. Every anticipated behavioral, logistical, training, movement and communications (this is not an exhaustive list) event likely has a signature or other observable phenomena associated with it. These signatures serve as specific indicators that law enforcement, intelligence personnel or other government authorities can observe and report to intelligence analysts to add to an overall analytical effort to forecast the next steps of the terrorists in order to provide actionable intelligence to the FBI to interdict the terrorists or some supporting actions to thwart the attack. These indicators are useful to both analysts and collectors, and we compile them into Indicator Lists. An indicator we define as a major action that the terrorists must take before they are ready for the attack, whereas an indication is evidence that such an action is being or has been taken. The distinction is an essential one which all of us tend to lose sight of in common usage. ï‚· The RAP concerns the creation/forecast of a partially intuition-based attack scenario, based on scant intelligence, or ‘dots’ in the form of a theoretical Intelligence intercept (below). You fill in the “gaps” with logical assertions backed up from your research and via your understanding of course materials. A predetermined parameter in this case is that before this intercept, another broad intelligence intercept was received indicating a major domestic terrorist attack would occur against the US within three-to-nine months (the date of this course is irrelevant to the hypothetical attack scenario). These two items are the “intelligence available.” You must analyse and create the most imaginative and detailed scenario possible around these two pieces of intelligence on the impending, potential FUTURE attack. While the scenario you paint is fictitious, remember that the goal is for you to demonstrate understanding of course key themes (cited) and incorporate scholarly research on terrorism and WMD. You should bear in mind when formulating the essay, you must address how you might indicators (discuss your TIIE effort) based on your research of the al Qa’ida terrorist network and the specific CBRN agent in the provided scenario details here. ï‚· Transcript of Intercept: Fragmented intelligence from a senior al-Qaida member was intercepted. He is unaware of the interception. No further indicators or intelligence has been forthcoming, except that it is known that there is an impending attack on the US mainland within three-to-nine months, and that this intercepted intelligence is not disinformation and is considered credible: (Arabic reproduced in phonetic Latin alphabet). Dots represent breaks in intercept. HIJOOM……DYMES SQUARE……WAHAD OH TELATEEN……RA……AL SINEH (RAS EL SINEH?)……….KHAMESS IQWAN…AFGHAN…………………………….JAMAYAT SAFAR LEBNANIAH.…GHARE MOOSTAHMELLEH WA MA’ASRUKAH……….………ISMAH MESEHIEH………..TE’SHIRAT…EL…CONSUL…EL AMERICIEH……….CASABLANCA……… ………………………ISLAMABAD…….……BARIS………..…GENNEDY…………..…BEIT AMEEN ……BROKLIN………..MEEYET LITTER SARIN…………SAYYARAT INSA’AF TETTER HERAK……..JUMMA………..MEN TASSAF EL LAYLEH….. ZAMAMEER………………DOW TENBEEHEE…….HALLET SAKTAH ELBIEH…TEHREEK….EL HAROOB……….…. LAGUARDIA……………..…..……………….DORONTO……….…LONDONNE……….SLAMABAD ..…..MUMKIN…..MISHKELLEH…SHURTA……….OULA..…….AMIN.………………AMERICIAH………. ISA’AF……QUMBLEH…KHAMES SHUHADA’A…… Translation (English) STRIKE …….. TIMES SQUARE ………. THIRTY-FIRST …… NEW YEAR’S EVE (?) ………… FIVE BROTHERS …….. AFGHAN ………. LEBANESE PASSPORTS STOLEN BLANKS …… CHRISTIAN NAMES ……….. VISAS … AMERICAN CONSULATE CASABLANCA……. .….. ISLAMABAD ….. PARIS ……. KENNEDY …… SAFE HOUSE ….… BROOKLYN …… 100 LITRES SARIN………… MOVING AMBULANCE ………. CROWD …… MIDNIGHT ……….. HORNS …….. FLASHING LIGHTS …… HEART ATTACK CASE …… ESCAPE ROUTE ……… LA GUARDIA ……..… TORONTO ………. LONDON ….. ISLAMABAD …… MAYBE ……. PROBLEM… AMERICAN POLICE OR SECURITY …… AMBULANCE … BOMB ……. FIVE MARTYRS…… Note: do NOT place this raw intelligence intercept in the body of your essay, as it would just add words to your word count without value. Specific instructions for the exercise and paper (format, length, etc.), can be found under “Assignments” for the TIIE and RAP.